A new poll released yesterday from Fox News shows fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with a commanding lead nationally over the major potential Republican candidates in the 2016 presidential election. Contrary to the rumors of “Hillary fatigue” following Clinton’s most recent media blitz, the Fox News poll reiterates Clinton’s relative strength compared to every other major candidate in 2016.. The following is an in-depth breakdown of the Fox News poll. For more polling updates up through 2016 presidential election follow this page on Twitter, Facebook, or subscribe through the link on the left.
The Overall Numbers
- Hillary Clinton (50 percent) versus Gov. Chris Christie (40 percent)
- Hillary Clinton (52 percent) versus Sen. Rand Paul (41 percent)
- Hillary Clinton (52 percent) versus fmr. Gov. Jeb Bush (39 percent)
- Hillary Clinton (54 percent) versus Gov. John Kasich (35 percent)
What the Poll Means
In 2012 President Obama won the popular versus Mitt Romney (Obama 51.01 percent to 47.15 percent for Mitt Romney) and won the Electoral College by a 332-206 margin over Romney.
Of course, a President is elected by winning enough states to obtain 270 Electoral College votes. It is rare, but occasionally a candidate will win the popular vote by a small margin while simultaneously losing the Electoral College vote – the most recent example being Al Gore in 2000.
No candidate has ever won the popular vote by ten points (the lead Fox News has for Clinton over Republicans) and also lost the Electoral College. Typically, a candidate who wins the popular vote by just a few percentage points, as Obama did in 2012, win the Electoral College by a large margin. A popular vote win of ten percentage points for Clinton would undoubtedly result in an Electoral College landslide victory.
The good news for Republicans is that there are still 832 days until the election, which gives them plenty of time to raise their own numbers while also trying to bring Clinton’s numbers down.
The second piece of good news for Republicans is that Clinton struggles to get above the 50 percent mark in the Fox News polls, which suggests that Republicans could get closer by winning over the remaining undecided voters.
Comparison to Other Polls
The Fox News poll simply confirms many other polls that show Clinton leading nationally against potential Republican candidates. A Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Clinton with a nine point lead against Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), a 9.3 point lead against Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ), a 9.7 lead against fmr Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL), a 9.6 point lead against fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR), a 6.7 point lead against. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), a 13.8 point lead against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), and an 11.5 point lead against Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL).
In fact, every national poll released since March from seven different polling organization all show Clinton leading all major potential Republican candidates by at least three points.
Every poll is ultimately based on a sampling of potential voters. A number of factors can influence the poll’s accuracy such as sample size and composition
In this poll FOX News surveyed 1,057 registered voters. Fox News called both land line and cell phone users.
Of the poll’s respondents, 35 percent identified themselves as Republican and 43 percent identified themselves as Democrats. The smallest group, 18 percent, identified themselves as independents. These party identification breakdowns might slightly overweight the strength of Democrats. A CNN exit poll in 2012 found that 38 percent of the state’s vote identified as Democratic, with 32 percent identifying as Republican and 29 percent as independents.
In his 2012 ratings Nate Silver found did not rate any polls from Fox News, as the media organization mostly relied on polls from Rasmussen Reports.. Fox News conducted the poll “under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw and Company Research (R).